1. Home
  2. Vol 4, No 5 (2020)
  3. Baylan

A Novel Project Risk Assessment Method Development via AHP-TOPSIS Hybrid Algorithm

Emin Başar Baylan

Abstract


In project planning, risk assessment method plays vital role. Poorly assessed project risks cause degeneration at project cost, project completion time, and project output quality and project scope. Each project activity risk influence these project success factors. Implementation performance of a project activity triggers or smooth of its successor’s activity risks. Because of this; employing robust and detailed risk assessment methods is important to reach those project goals. In project risk assessment literature, when it is investigated, it is noticed that risk assessment and evaluation methods are only developed at whole project level. Actually, they are not comprehensive enough to evaluate the project risks at activity level. Besides that traditional risk assessment methods such as risk matrix does not able analyze project risk quantitatively. With this motivation, main aim of this study is developing a multi-criteria based decision method which prioritizing project risks at activity level. AHP and TOPSIS method are combined to developed novel method. In this hybrid method, Constructing AHP model is to prioritize work packages with respect to relative importance of project time, project output quality and project cost. Broken down structure of these work packages are used as input for weighted criteria for TOPSIS method. In second layer of this decision method, TOPSIS model is used for prioritizing predetermined activity risks according weighted project work packages success criteria. In the application of this method, a case study approach is followed. In this sense, “Global Furniture Ltd.” which is established in Istanbul, Turkey is chosen as a case to apply newly developed model. Results showed that application of AHP-Stochastic TOPSIS Hybrid Algorithm provides a platform that project risks could be analyzed as quantitative and also at project activity level.

Keywords


Risk Assessment; TOPSIS; Project Risk; MCDM; Risk Assessment Method.

References


Willumsen, Pelle, Josef Oehmen, Verena Stingl, and Joana Geraldi. “Value Creation through Project Risk Management.” International Journal of Project Management 37, no. 5 (July 2019): 731–749. doi:10.1016/j.ijproman.2019.01.007.

Hussey, D.E. “Portfolio Analysis: Practical Experience with the Directional Policy Matrix.” Long Range Planning 11, no. 4 (August 1978): 2–8. doi:10.1016/0024-6301(78)90001-8.

Anthony (Tony) Cox Jr, Louis. "What's wrong with risk matrices?." Risk Analysis: An International Journal 28, no. 2 (2008): 497-512. doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01030.x.

Dey, Prasanta Kumar. “Managing Project Risk Using Combined Analytic Hierarchy Process and Risk Map.” Applied Soft Computing 10, no. 4 (September 2010): 990–1000. doi:10.1016/j.asoc.2010.03.010.

Fu-zhou, Luo, and Gao Hong-yuan. “The Risk Assessment Model of BT Construction Engineering Project Financing.” Systems Engineering Procedia 1 (2011): 169–173. doi:10.1016/j.sepro.2011.08.028.

Liu, Peide, Xin Zhang, and Weilong Liu. “A Risk Evaluation Method for the High-Tech Project Investment Based on Uncertain Linguistic Variables.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 78, no. 1 (January 2011): 40–50. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2010.04.011.1.

Mousavi, S.M., R. Tavakkoli-Moghaddam, A. Azaron, S.M.H. Mojtahedi, and H. Hashemi. “Risk Assessment for Highway Projects Using Jackknife Technique.” Expert Systems with Applications 38, no. 5 (May 2011): 5514–5524. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2010.10.085.

Tang, Wenbin, Feilian Zhang, Ze Ye, and Jingjing Li. “Research on Risk Evaluation in Urban Rail Transit Project.” Procedia Engineering 15 (2011): 5094–5099. doi:10.1016/j.proeng.2011.08.945.

Askari, M., and H.R. Shokrizade. “An Integrated Method for Ranking of Risk in BOT Projects.” Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 109 (January 2014): 1390–1394. doi:10.1016/j.sbspro.2013.12.642.

Zhao, Huiru, and Nana Li. “Risk Evaluation of a UHV Power Transmission Construction Project Based on a Cloud Model and FCE Method for Sustainability.” Sustainability 7, no. 3 (March 11, 2015): 2885–2914. doi:10.3390/su7032885.

Muriana, Cinzia, and Giovanni Vizzini. “Project Risk Management: A Deterministic Quantitative Technique for Assessment and Mitigation.” International Journal of Project Management 35, no. 3 (April 2017): 320–340. doi:10.1016/j.ijproman.2017.01.010.

Wang, Le, Juan-juan Peng, and Jian-qiang Wang. “A Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Framework for Risk Ranking of Energy Performance Contracting Project under Picture Fuzzy Environment.” Journal of Cleaner Production 191 (August 2018): 105–118. doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.04.169.

Urgilés, Paúl, Juan Claver, and Miguel A. Sebastián. “Methods for Quantitative Risks Analysis of Cost and Deadline Overruns in Complex Projects.” Procedia Manufacturing 41 (2019): 658–665. doi:10.1016/j.promfg.2019.09.055.

Akbari Ahmadabadi, Ali, and Gholamreza Heravi. “Risk Assessment Framework of PPP-Megaprojects Focusing on Risk Interaction and Project Success.” Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 124 (June 2019): 169–188. doi:10.1016/j.tra.2019.03.011.

Wu, Yunna, Ting Zhang, Kaifeng Chen, and Liqi Yi. “A Risk Assessment Framework of Seawater Pumped Hydro Storage Project in China Under Three Typical Public-Private Partnership Management Modes.” Journal of Energy Storage 32 (December 2020): 101753. doi:10.1016/j.est.2020.101753.

Chebotareva, Galina, Wadim Strielkowski, and Dalia Streimikiene. “Risk Assessment in Renewable Energy Projects: A Case of Russia.” Journal of Cleaner Production 269 (October 2020): 122110. doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.122110.

Yuan, Ting, Pengcheng Xiang, Huaiyin Li, and Lei Zhang. “Identification of the Main Risks for International Rail Construction Projects Based on the Effects of Cost-Estimating Risks.” Journal of Cleaner Production 274 (November 2020): 122904. doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.122904.

Karahalios, Hristos. “The Application of the AHP-TOPSIS for Evaluating Ballast Water Treatment Systems by Ship Operators.” Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment 52 (May 2017): 172–184. doi:10.1016/j.trd.2017.03.001.

Clifford Gray, & Eric Larson. Project Management:The Managerial Process. (Stewart Mattson was fifth edition, Ed.) (4.edition). New York: Tim Vertovec, (2011).

Tzeng, G.-H., & Huang, J.-J., “Multiple Attribute Decision Making METHODS AND APPLICATIONS”,CRC press, 1th edition, (2011), ISBN: 978-1-4398-6157-8.

Bhushan, N., & Rai, K. Strategic Decision Making Applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process, 1th edition, (R. Roy, Ed.). U.S.A: Springer, (2004), ISBN: 9781852337568.

Yin, R.K. Case Study Research: Design and Methods. 2nd ed. London: Sage Publications, 3th edition, (2002), ISBN: 0761925538.

Bathrinath, S., R.K.A. Bhalaji, and S. Saravanasankar. “Risk Analysis in Textile Industries Using AHP-TOPSIS.” Materials Today: Proceedings (May 2020). doi:10.1016/j.matpr.2020.04.722.


Full Text: PDF

DOI: 10.28991/esj-2020-01239

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Copyright (c) 2020 Emin Başar Baylan