Conceptualizing Post-COVID-19 Malaysia’s Tourism Recovery: An Auto-Regressive Neural Network Analysis

Anantha Raj A. Arokiasamy, Philip Michael Ross Smith, Thanapat Kijbumrung

Abstract


The pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus (COVID-19) has significantly affected the tourism industry. Tourist destinations have adopted emergency measures and restrictions that have affected the mobility of individuals around the world. This study aims to analyze the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the tourism industry in Malaysia and its overall economic performance. This research used an extensive set of statistical tests, including a newly constructed Auto-Regressive Neural Network-ADF (ARNN-ADF) test, to determine if foreign visitor arrivals from 10 main source markets in Malaysia will revert to normal. Secondary data from various government published sources were used in this conceptual methodology technique for this study. Based on the research results and exploratory research of the literature, we listed in a synthesizing manner several measures to ensure the resilience of the tourism sector during the COVID-19 pandemic period. This research makes a significant contribution to the literature in terms of validating a new framework that emphasizes the effects of tourists that are largely transitory. In conclusion, this conceptual study will further help the authorities to take precautions and the best policy to be implemented in the future.

 

Doi: 10.28991/esj-2021-SPER-10

Full Text: PDF


Keywords


COVID-19 Pandemic; Tourism; Hospitality; Non-linearity; Auto-Regressive Neural Network; Unit Root.

References


Terzić, Lejla. “How Tourism Destination Competitiveness Contributes To GDP Growth - The Case Of Selected European Economies.” Acta Oeconomica Pragensia 26, no. 3 (September 1, 2018): 24–34. doi:10.18267/j.aop.606.

Balasubramanian, Kandappan, and Neethiahnanthan Ari Ragavan. “What Are the Key Challenges Faced by the Malaysian Hospitality and Tourism Industry in the Context of Industrial Revolution 4.0?” Worldwide Hospitality and Tourism Themes 11, no. 2 (April 8, 2019): 194–203. doi:10.1108/whatt-11-2018-0079.

Garg, Anshul, and Juhi Garg. "Hospitality Interest and Inferred Domains: A Comparative Study among Indian and Malaysian Students." International Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Systems 12, no. 1 (2019): 34.

Sajilan, Sulaiman, Shehnaz Tehseen, and Samuel Adeyinka-Ojo. "A conceptual framework of the impact of entrepreneurial competencies on small and medium enterprises business performance in the Malaysian hospitality and tourism industry." Review of Integrative Business and Economics Research 5, no. 2 (2016): 47.

Fereidouni, Hassan Gholipour, Al-mulali Usama, and Miswan Abdul Hakim Mohammed. “Wealth Effect from Real Estate and Outbound Travel Demand: The Malaysian Case.” Current Issues in Tourism 20, no. 1 (February 6, 2014): 68–79. doi:10.1080/13683500.2014.882886.

Yaya, OlaOluwa S., Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna, Fumitaka Furuoka, and Luis A. Gil‐Alana. “A New Unit Root Test for Unemployment Hysteresis Based on the Autoregressive Neural Network” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 83, no. 4 (March 24, 2021): 960–981. doi:10.1111/obes.12422.

Farías-Torbidoni, Estela Inés, and Demir Barić. “The Economic Impact of Tourism on Protected Natural Areas: Examining the Influence of Physical Activity Intensity on Visitors’ Spending Levels.” Eco.mont (Journal on Protected Mountain Areas Research) 12, no. 2 (2020): 22–32. doi:10.1553/eco.mont-12-2s22.

Comerio, Niccoló, and Fausto Pacicco. “Thank You for Your Staying! An Analysis of the Economic Impact of Tourism in Japanese Prefectures.” Current Issues in Tourism 24, no. 12 (August 4, 2020): 1721–1734. doi:10.1080/13683500.2020.1801604.

Garcia-Muñoz Alhambra, Antonio, Beryl Ter Haar, and Attila Kun. “Harnessing Public Institutions for Labour Law Enforcement.” International Organizations Law Review 17, no. 1 (April 18, 2020): 233–260. doi:10.1163/15723747-01701010.

Country Report Malaysia July 2019. In. London: The Economist Intelligence Unit N.A., Incorporated (2019).

Mehdi, Syed Asghar. "Tourism Visitor Export, Income Generation and Employment Capacity: A Comparative Analysis of the Tourism Industries of India, China and Malaysia." IUP Journal of Entrepreneurship Development 16, no. 2 (2019).

Malaysia Tourism Report - Q2 2021. (2021). In (pp. 1). London: Fitch Solutions Group Limited.

Bank, W. Global Financial Development Report 2019/2020: bank regulation and supervision a decade after... the global financial crisis. (2019); World Bank.

Cham, T.-H., Lim, Y.-M., Sia, B.-C., Cheah, J.-H., & Ting, H. Medical Tourism Destination Image and its Relationship with the Intention to Revisit: A Study of Chinese Medical Tourists in Malaysia. Journal of China tourism research, (2021); 17(2), 163-191. https://doi.org/10.1080/19388160.2020.1734514

Cham, Tat-Huei, Yet-Mee Lim, Bee-Chuan Sia, Jun-Hwa Cheah, and Hiram Ting. “Medical Tourism Destination Image and Its Relationship with the Intention to Revisit: A Study of Chinese Medical Tourists in Malaysia.” Journal of China Tourism Research 17, no. 2 (March 15, 2020): 163–191. doi:10.1080/19388160.2020.1734514.

Moosa, Imad A., and Ibrahim N. Khatatbeh. “International Tourist Arrivals as a Determinant of the Severity of Covid-19: International Cross-Sectional Evidence.” Journal of Policy Research in Tourism, Leisure and Events (December 17, 2020): 1–16. doi:10.1080/19407963.2020.1859519.

Beh, Loo-See, and Woon Leong Lin. “Impact of COVID-19 on ASEAN Tourism Industry.” Journal of Asian Public Policy (January 28, 2021): 1–21. doi:10.1080/17516234.2020.1871180.

Yucel, Ali Gokhan. “Are Shocks to Tourist Arrivals Permanent or Transitory? A Comprehensive Analysis on the Top 20 Most-Visited Countries.” Current Issues in Tourism 24, no. 16 (October 13, 2020): 2294–2311. doi:10.1080/13683500.2020.1828311.

Foo, Lee-Peng, Mui-Yin Chin, Kim-Leng Tan, and Kit-Teng Phuah. “The Impact of COVID-19 on Tourism Industry in Malaysia.” Current Issues in Tourism (June 12, 2020): 1–5. doi:10.1080/13683500.2020.1777951.

Ho, Jie Min, and Joseph Kee Ming Sia. “Embracing an Uncertain Future: COVID-19 and MICE in Malaysia.” Local Development & Society 1, no. 2 (July 2, 2020): 190–204. doi:10.1080/26883597.2020.1818533.

Samdin, Zaiton, Siti Intan Nurdiana Wong Abdullah, Alfred Khaw, and Thanam Subramaniam. “Travel Risk in the Ecotourism Industry amid COVID-19 Pandemic: Ecotourists’ Perceptions.” Journal of Ecotourism (June 13, 2021): 1–29. doi:10.1080/14724049.2021.1938089.

Al-Shboul, Mohammad, Sajid Anwar, and Iman Akour. “The Role of Financial and Epidemic Crises on Tourism Loyalty.” Journal of Policy Research in Tourism, Leisure and Events (May 17, 2021): 1–34. doi:10.1080/19407963.2021.1928148.

Chua, Bee-Lia, Amr Al-Ansi, Myong Jae Lee, and Heesup Han. “Tourists’ Outbound Travel Behavior in the Aftermath of the COVID-19: Role of Corporate Social Responsibility, Response Effort, and Health Prevention.” Journal of Sustainable Tourism 29, no. 6 (November 20, 2020): 879–906. doi:10.1080/09669582.2020.1849236.

Cheung, Yin-Wong, and Kon S. Lai. “Lag Order and Critical Values of the Augmented Dickey–Fuller Test.” Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 13, no. 3 (July 1995): 277–280. doi:10.1080/07350015.1995.10524601.

Lee, Junsoo, and Dante Mossi. “On Improvements of Phillips-Perron Unit Root Tests Using Optimal Bandwidth Estimates.” Applied Economics Letters 3, no. 3 (March 1996): 197–200. doi:10.1080/135048596356681.

Cavaliere, Giuseppe, and A. M. Robert Taylor. “A Note on Testing Covariance Stationarity.” Econometric Reviews 28, no. 4 (January 30, 2009): 364–371. doi:10.1080/07474930802458992.

Andreou, Elena, and Eric Ghysels. “Rolling-Sample Volatility Estimators.” Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 20, no. 3 (July 2002): 363–376. doi:10.1198/073500102288618504.

Chen, Mei-Yuan. “Testing Stationarity against Unit Roots and Structural Changes.” Applied Economics Letters 9, no. 7 (June 2002): 459–464. doi:10.1080/13504850110091895.

Cavaliere, Giuseppe. “Unit Root Tests under Time-Varying Variances.” Econometric Reviews 23, no. 3 (January 2, 2005): 259–292. doi:10.1081/etc-200028215.

Dickey, David A., William R. Bell, and Robert B. Miller. “Unit Roots in Time Series Models: Tests and Implications.” The American Statistician 40, no. 1 (February 1986): 12–26. doi:10.1080/00031305.1986.10475349.

Taylor, A. M. Robert, and Richard J Smith. “Tests of the Seasonal Unit-Root Hypothesis against Heteroscedastic Seasonal Integration.” Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 19, no. 2 (April 2001): 192–207. doi:10.1198/073500101316970412.

Jamaluddin, Siti Zaharah, Foo Yuen Wah, and Mohammad Abu Taher. “Covid-19: a Preliminary Assessment on the Social Security Framework for an Aged Malaysia.” Commonwealth Law Bulletin 47, no. 1 (November 2, 2020): 55–71. doi:10.1080/03050718.2020.1834421.

Pleyers, Geoffrey. “The Pandemic Is a Battlefield. Social Movements in the COVID-19 Lockdown.” Journal of Civil Society 16, no. 4 (August 6, 2020): 295–312. doi:10.1080/17448689.2020.1794398.

Jahari, Siti Aqilah, I-Chieh Michelle Yang, Juliana Angeline French, and Pervaiz Khalid Ahmed. “COVID-19 and Beyond: Understanding Travel Risk Perception as a Process.” Tourism Recreation Research (June 23, 2021): 1–16. doi:10.1080/02508281.2021.1937450.

Kuščer, Kir, Sarah Eichelberger, and Mike Peters. “Tourism Organizations’ Responses to the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Investigation of the Lockdown Period.” Current Issues in Tourism (May 27, 2021): 1–14. doi:10.1080/13683500.2021.1928010.

Li, Zhiyong, Qingxue Zhao, Tingting Huo, Yuhong Shao, and Zhongyi Hu. “COVID-19: Management Focus of Reopened Tourist Destinations.” Current Issues in Tourism (December 25, 2020): 1–7. doi:10.1080/13683500.2020.1863926.

Rather, Raouf Ahmad. “Monitoring the Impacts of Tourism-Based Social Media, Risk Perception and Fear on Tourist’s Attitude and Revisiting Behaviour in the Wake of COVID-19 Pandemic.” Current Issues in Tourism (February 10, 2021): 1–9. doi:10.1080/13683500.2021.1884666.

Ateljevic, Irena. “Transforming the (tourism) World for Good and (re)generating the Potential ‘new Normal.’” Tourism Geographies 22, no. 3 (May 2, 2020): 467–475. doi:10.1080/14616688.2020.1759134.

Lapointe, Dominic. “Reconnecting Tourism after COVID-19: The Paradox of Alterity in Tourism Areas.” Tourism Geographies 22, no. 3 (May 5, 2020): 633–638. doi:10.1080/14616688.2020.1762115.


Full Text: PDF

DOI: 10.28991/esj-2021-SPER-10

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Copyright (c) 2021 Anantha Raj A. Arokiasamy, Philip Michael Ross Smith, Thanapat Kijbumrung